01

NIFTY Analysis for the week of May 30th-Jun 3rd 2016 -- 100% Accuracy
INDIA
Posted by admin on
June 1, 2016
The below newsletter was written on May 31st noon IST.
NIFTY had a big rally in the last 3 days of last week (May 25th-27th). As of this newsletter on May 31st at around 2:37pm NIFTY is around 8165.
Last week was also options expiry week & people who traded in options made a killing/huge profits “if” they were on the bull side. Reasons given for the rally as per media – is strong economic report in USA of New home monthly sales for April & coincidence that Morgan Stanley upgraded Indian stock market to “overweight” on same day following USA strong economic report. Markets are ignoring bad news & rallying on good news. This indicates Bulls are in control for now.
USA fed is considering to increase interest rates following strong economic indicators last week. Media & market noise “about interest rates hike in USA” has shot up big from last week. Fed rate decision is due on June 15th 2016. All this will have an impact on Indian markets.
Back in India market is expecting 50 basis point “cut” from RBI on June 7th. A big market mover easily.
Volatility may shoot up in next 1-2 weeks as Bulls & Bears fight it out.
Following are the big economic reports due, which are most probably market movers for India in short term
May 31st 2016 (India) – India GDP Annual
June 1st (USA) – US ADP Employment change & US ISM Manufacturing PMI
June 3rd (USA) – US Balance of Trade ; US Unemployment data & US ISM Non-manufacturing data
June 6th (USA) – Fed Yellen speech
June 7th 2016 (India) – RBI Interest Rate Decision
June 10th(USA) – US Michigan consumer sentiment Preliminary
June 14th (USA) – US Retail sales MoM
June 15th (USA) – Fed interest rate decision
Since we at ‘vcarefinance’ are “trend followers based on Technical analysis”, below is our analysis of Nifty
SHORT Term Trend – UP
MEDIUM Term Trend – NEUTRAL (This week/next week will be critical as per our knowledge)
LONG Term Trend — UP
BULLISH SCENARIO: Even after the big rally of last week, we will stay Neutral as per what Medium trend chart is indicating. Also Todays high of 8220 is critical for NIFTY to cross for any further rally in short term. Expect a big rally if 8220 is cleared convincingly. There is a strong resistance around 8250 area.
So, if Nifty crosses 8220-8230, 1st target 8250-8260 (resistance strength 9/10 to 10/10); 2nd target 8330-8370 (resistance strength 9/10 to 10/10); 3rd target 8400-8420 (resistance strength 9/10 to 10/10)
BEARISH SCENARIO: If NIFTY struggles to cross 8220 for whatever reasons this week, then it means Bulls will most probably lose momentum. Also big economic reports are due as indicated above
If Nifty stays below 8220, then 1st target around 8100-8090 (support strength 9/10); 2nd target around 8000-7990 (support strength 10/10) & 3rd target around 7950 (support strength 10/10)
CONCLUSION: This week, bears will most probably step in, to give fight to bulls. If 8220 is crossed “convincingly” expect a solid bull run this week or next week. Please keep an eye on major economic reports as mentioned above, as they could be market movers. Small pullback is already happening as I write this report. I expect the pullback that is happening currently, to be real test for bulls and bears for “this week”.
If I have to take a stance, I would say that this week could be a neutral week considering the RBI policy news due early next week.
So, this week I expect pullback first (already happening) & then bullish scenario if bulls continue their rampage of last week.
God Bless!
Koomar
UPDATE — For the week as predicted, NIFTY first pulled back to around 8130 and then went up but could not clear 8260. Ended at 8220. Please refer above, I kept referring to 8220 as a critical level. Could not clear 8260 as there was lots of resistance as mentioned above.
Accuracy 100%.
Facebook (FB) position 12/11/18 — Real trade
Posted by admin on December 13th, 2018
DIA — real trade — bought on Nov 26th 2018
Posted by admin on December 2nd, 2018
Real option trade 11/26/18– DIA Call :500+ percent return in 5 days — 100 percent accuracy
Posted by admin on December 2nd, 2018
Real trade : Apple (AAPL) option play of Nov 15th’ 2018 — 100 percent accuracy
Posted by admin on November 23rd, 2018
COSTCO — Technical Analysis – Aug 8th’ 2017
Posted by admin on August 7th, 2017
CVS Stock – analyzed for a client in April 2017 – 100 % accuracy
Posted by admin on June 27th, 2017
Technical Analysis of DOW JONES for Jan-March 2017 — Updated on Feb 16th and Mar 30th — 100% accuracy
Posted by admin on January 12th, 2017
NIFTY – for the week of July 10th to 15th — Old article 100% accuracy
Posted by admin on September 7th, 2016
NIFTY Analysis for the week of May 30th-Jun 3rd 2016 — 100% Accuracy
Posted by admin on June 1st, 2016
DOW JONES Analysis – Week of March 28th to April 1st’ 2016 — 100% accuracy
Posted by admin on March 28th, 2016
Technical Analysis of DOW JONES — 100% Accuracy
Posted by admin on March 20th, 2016
LANCO INFRATECH Ltd (LITL) — Technical Analysis — 100% accuracy
Posted by admin on December 27th, 2015
NIFTY — Technical analysis –100% accuracy
Posted by admin on December 21st, 2015
GRAINGER stock analysis (100% accuracy)
Posted by admin on August 3rd, 2015
US Dollar — Technical Analysis
Posted by admin on May 18th, 2015
Another recent trade — shorted Financial sector
Posted by admin on February 6th, 2015
Recent Gold (GLD) Trade – real proof
Posted by admin on February 3rd, 2015
IBM position — real trade proof
Posted by admin on October 29th, 2014
USA Markets – Oct 13th’ 2014 (Sell off started?)
Posted by admin on October 13th, 2014
USA Markets — 8/10/2014 Analysis
Posted by admin on August 11th, 2014
Microsoft (MSFT) — I suggested investing in Dec 2013
Posted by admin on August 11th, 2014
Tesaro (TSRO) — Technical Analysis 8/7/2014
Posted by admin on August 7th, 2014
USA Markets — Is there going to be sell off ?
Posted by admin on August 3rd, 2014
WFM — Technical Analysis (100% Accuracy..written on Dec 1st 2013)
Posted by admin on December 2nd, 2013
ESCORTS stock analyzed in Jan 2017 for client — 100 % returns in 4 + months
Posted by admin on June 24th, 2017
Kumar analyzed AAPL stock in April 2013 in response to my request, as I was invested in Apple stock then. His analysis was 100% on the money & that helped me to decide on my next steps. I highly recommend his service for any kind of investor/trader.
Kumar provided some valuable insight to a stock (TSRO) I was considering buying. Thank you Kumar!
Thank you Kumar for your advice not to invest money in WFM in November 2013. I thought this would be a good opportunity to get my daughter started in stocks, but it would not have been a pleasant beginning. The stock has never been as high as it was when I was considering it. It has continued to decrease over the past year. It started at 59 and fell to 38 in a few months. I should have invested in MSFT as you recommended which has gone from 38 to a recent price of 49.
Thank you Kumar for sharing your views on Gold. As I recall you predicted this well in advance around 8 years back that gold will have a dream run, and you are damn right. I realize some of us didn't buy that theory at that time initially, but soon enough realized the true potential of gold and started purchasing from then on and made good handsome profits. Truly appreciate your advice on gold even today.
Kumar's analysis of the market and even a particular Stock are very accurate. He told me about J.P. associates turning point and that what exactly happened. I'm very impressed and thankful.
Kumar gave advice on VGUARD Industries, I followed him exactly, I dont have enough time to look at it everyday, but his timely updates helped me, more over his advice was accurate