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Jan

12

Technical Analysis of DOW JONES for Jan-March 2017 -- Updated on Feb 16th and Mar 30th -- 100% accuracy
 

Posted by admin on

January 12, 2017

The below article was written on Jan 11th 2017 evening.  Please note, breakouts can be tricky & care must be taken to make right decisions.

(Updated analysis on Feb 16th 2017 & March 30th 2017, at the bottom of this article)

Dow Jones Analysis for next 2-3 months

Dow Jones & USA Markets had a great BULL run after the results of Nov 8th 2016 Presidential election.  For the 2016 year, Dow Jones gave returns of 13.4% after a rocky start.

Dow Jones has reached very close to 20k in late Dec 2016, but did not officially touch or close above 20k since then. On Jan 11th 2017, Dow Jones closed at 19,954. Will it finally cross 20k?

Let’s see the technical picture of Dow Jones

monthly DOW JONES

SHORT TERM– POSITIVE 

MEDIUM TERM – POSITIVE

LONG TERM – POSITIVE

Clearly, charts are indicating that Dow Jones is in solid uptrend. The question is will it pull back first or will the bulls continue to take Dow Jones beyond 20k?

 

BULLISH SCENARIO – If 20k is crossed “convincingly”, then there could be bull rampage for at least another 500-1000 points in coming weeks or month.  There is possibility of 2000 points rally in 2-3 months as well, if there is a strong break above 20k. The keyword here is “if there is a true breakout” & not a fake one.

 

BEARISH SCENARIO – I personally think 20k is just another psychological number. And since this bull market is 8 years old and one of the longest bull runs in USA history, I think there could be a false breakout above 20k (if it happens) and then pull back little sharply. My 1st target is 19300 in next 1 month & second target is around 18000 in next 2-3 months. I am inclined towards Bearish scenario until proven wrong by smart money.

 

CONCLUSION – Last month high of 20k will be the critical one for bulls to cross. If I have to take a stand, I will go with Bearish scenario for next 2-3 months until proven wrong by smart money.

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God Bless!

Koomar

P.S : Wishing you and your loved ones a HAPPY, HEALTHY & PROSPEROUS New Year 2017 !

(Disclaimer : http://www.vcarefinance.com/disclaimer/ )

 

 Feb 16th 2017 Update : I published my article on Jan 12th. It did pull back first as predicted above, but not to the levels I mentioned/expected. On Jan 19th it pulled back to around 19680 & then bulls stepped in. After a fake breakout of 20k in late January, the real breakout happened in second week of February. As mentioned above, when the real breakout happened, I mentioned that 500-1000 points bull run was expected. Well, Dow Jones closed at 20,639 on Feb 16th. Almost 600+ points run above 20k in Dow Jones and counting. Bottom line, Bulls are in full control & that’s what the tape is saying for now. Smart Money has spoken out loud & clear in second week of February ( Big impetus came with news of – President Trump New Tax rules to be rolled out soon).

March 30th 2017 Update : On March 1st 2017, Dow Jones hit 21,115.  Bang on target – as expected & mentioned on Jan 12th 2017. Please see the Bullish scenario above. 100 % accuracy. Imagine the profits one would have made if he/she bought options or invested in the index ?

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